Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 12.989268 15.194023 17.609542 20.445718 23.677566 27.238366 31.451182
2024-12-15 10.148144 13.157655 16.753308 21.337290 26.994297 33.713160 42.260167
2024-12-22 8.028954 11.377506 15.685043 21.567690 29.317447 39.094719 52.266083
2024-12-29 6.521367 9.997112 14.766892 21.677975 31.299908 44.065193 62.091027
2025-01-05 5.176869 8.543312 13.448828 20.951797 31.931040 47.162897 69.580329
2025-01-12 4.349034 7.669494 12.773830 20.961278 33.471076 51.504468 78.993725
2025-01-19 3.691303 6.929167 12.161222 20.929688 34.865006 55.659633 88.368531
2025-01-26 3.381412 6.701176 12.301110 22.043204 38.048112 62.630473 102.316397
2025-02-02 3.076725 6.424410 12.308314 22.912838 40.885376 69.241555 116.134331
2025-02-09 2.834234 6.216702 12.394676 23.900101 43.965200 76.408250 131.242063
2025-02-16 2.483332 5.739166 11.931568 23.865185 45.302439 80.848229 142.279552
2025-02-23 2.099891 5.127027 11.132841 23.123304 45.325987 83.096108 149.858155
2025-03-02 1.767206 4.568666 10.374469 22.392170 45.339936 85.396449 157.812085
2025-03-09 1.572724 4.279749 10.111677 22.574022 47.018637 90.652665 171.083174
2025-03-16 1.383740 3.967139 9.755002 22.523758 48.246551 95.186468 183.376663
2025-03-23 1.224713 3.695492 9.445998 22.528415 49.564775 99.948182 196.332141
2025-03-30 1.032120 3.297378 8.796700 21.736979 49.233720 101.652080 203.896589
2025-04-06 0.916468 3.079484 8.528416 21.731648 50.468232 106.327139 217.103834
2025-04-13 0.813547 2.874814 8.260989 21.693339 51.620414 110.901957 230.362660
2025-04-20 0.783153 2.876625 8.501954 22.840270 55.353859 120.677188 253.896137
2025-04-27 0.741794 2.836796 8.631421 23.736650 58.612759 129.700941 276.447993
2025-05-04 0.708352 2.815326 8.805406 24.754746 62.209157 139.590244 301.147196
2025-05-11 0.634480 2.645263 8.558808 24.718602 63.458634 144.816799 317.018179